Mathematical Modelling of Bias and Uncertainty in Accident Risk Assessment

Appendix 95 6 CONTENTS 0.1. PREFACE i 0.1 Preface This report is a summary of the results of an off-campus final project entitled " Mathematical modelling of bias and uncertainty in accident risk assessment " executed by the author at the National Aerospace Laboratory NLR, Amster-dam for a period of 28 weeks from December 2001 to June 2002. Execution of a final project is one of the necessary requirements for graduating with a The report is divided into two parts. The first part, consisting of Chapters 1 through 5, contains mathematical background materials for uncertainty analysis of accident risk assessment while the second part, consisting of Chapters 6, 7, and 8, is devoted to a discussion of the simulation results and conclusions that can be drawn based on the work done during the 28 weeks. The author would like to express his gratitude to the many people who have made contributions to this study. First of all the author would like to thank his supervisor Prof. Dr. Arunabha Bagchi at the University of Twente for his continuous support and for his insights and suggestions on various aspects of the problem being studied. Secondly the author is grateful to Dr. Henk A.P. Blom, for giving him the opportunity to execute a final project at the NLR , for reading the manuscript and providing feedback, and for the interesting ideas he had shared. The author is indebted to his supervisor at the NLR, ir. Mariken H.C. Everdij for the many fruitful discussions and the numerous feedback, for her careful reading of the manuscript and not too mention for being understanding and patient with the author during the duration of his stay at the NLR. A special thanks goes to ir. Bert Bakker for providing the author with some Matlab R m-files for simulation, for the many discussions, for reading sections of the manuscript related to his area of expertise and for looking carefully at some proofs proposed by the author. The author is also indebted to the head of the LL department, ir. Jan C. Terlouw, for swiftly taking care of a working permit problem way back in December 2001. Finally, the author thanks his room mate in Kamer 55.1.07 of the LL Building, ir. Marco van der Park, and all other members of NLR's ATM group (Margriet, Sybert, Edwin and newcomer Bart) for the relaxing chit chat while working or during …